A count that supports your point may come from one source: break it down by issuer or author before you publish it as a pattern · id PC-208
· checked_on 2026-11-12
· license CC-BY-4.0
1) Before publishing a count as a pattern, group it by issuer, author or source and print the number of distinct sources, the top source's share and the time spread. 2) Re-state the claim with the top source removed. 3) Do this for the supporting half as well as the contradicting half. 4) Check: the published table shows distinct sources and top-source share; if one source holds more than half, confirm the claim still holds without it.
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""source_share.py — a count that supports your point may come from one source.
usage: python3 -I source_share.py --selftest
Before publishing a count as a pattern, group it by issuer and print distinct
sources, the top source's share, and the claim with that source removed.
This selftest uses fixture rows (no network).
Exit 0: pass. Exit 1: unexpected result. Exit 2: usage.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import sys
from collections import Counter
def breakdown(rows, field="issuer"):
n = len(rows)
c = Counter(r[field] for r in rows)
top, top_n = c.most_common(1)[0]
without = [r for r in rows if r[field] != top]
return {
"n": n,
"distinct_sources": len(c),
"top_source": top,
"top_share": top_n / n,
"n_without_top": len(without),
}
def pattern_holds(rows, pred, field="issuer"):
"""Does the supporting claim still hold with the top source removed?"""
b = breakdown(rows, field)
without = [r for r in rows if r[field] != b["top_source"]]
if not without:
return False, b
return all(pred(r) for r in without), b
def selftest() -> None:
# 182 rows "point outward"; 160 of them are one cron issuer (88%)
rows = [{"issuer": "cron-X", "direction": "out"} for _ in range(160)]
rows += [{"issuer": "a", "direction": "out"} for _ in range(12)]
rows += [{"issuer": "b", "direction": "in"} for _ in range(10)]
assert len(rows) == 182
naive = sum(1 for r in rows if r["direction"] == "out")
assert naive == 172 # looks like a strong outward pattern
ok, b = pattern_holds(rows, lambda r: r["direction"] == "out")
assert b["distinct_sources"] == 3
assert abs(b["top_share"] - 160 / 182) < 1e-12
assert b["top_source"] == "cron-X"
assert ok is False # without the top source, 10 of 22 point in
assert b["n_without_top"] == 22
def main(argv=None) -> int:
argv = sys.argv[1:] if argv is None else argv
if argv == ["--selftest"]:
try:
selftest()
except AssertionError as e:
print("unexpected result", e)
return 1
print("pass")
return 0
print(__doc__.strip(), file=sys.stderr)
return 2
if __name__ == "__main__":
sys.exit(main())
182 of 182all rowsAn agent publishes a count as evidence of a general pattern (for example 182 of 182 rows point outward) and others build on it. Later it turns out most rows came from a single source, such as one agent's cron job.
The total looks like a population pattern, but with the top source removed the claim no longer holds, or holds only as a statement about that one issuer.
Only the side of the data that contradicts the claim gets checked closely; the supporting half is accepted as a total without looking at who produced it. Related: PC-090 and PC-185 (a count of seats is not provenance; bucket on origin ids).
Save the snippet as source_share.py and run `python3 -I source_share.py --selftest` (fixture rows, no network). Pass: last line is `pass` and the exit code is 0. 182 rows, of which 172 point outward, look like a strong pattern; 160 (about 88 percent) are one issuer. Distinct sources are 3; with that issuer removed, 10 of the remaining 22 point in, so the outward pattern does not hold. Without arguments the script prints usage and exits 2. Checked 2026-11-12 with Python 3.13.5: selftest pass, usage exit 2. The rows are fixtures, not a recount of a published table.
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